The current WPTC world production estimate following discussions during the organization’s Annual General Meeting on 13 February stands at 47 million metric tonnes.
There is no change in the forecast for California and most of the AMITOM countries compared with the last update at the end of January, except for Spain where better water availability led to an increase in the intentions from 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes.
In China, due to the Spring Festival in early February, all processing plants and major growers were on vacation. Therefore, the data statistics were not very complete, and it is still too early to provide accurate estimates of planting area and regional distribution. Based on the information currently available, seed sales volume and expected processing volume of plants the estimate of 2024 crop is 11 million metric tonnes. At the same time, domestic consumption in China is growing dramatically.
In Canada, preliminary indications are that contracted volumes will be similar to 2024 at 583,000 short tons (530,000 metric tonnes), while in Russia, the current forecast is for 650,000 tonnes of tomatoes to be processed and nearly repeat the previous result. Due to sanctions and restrictions, there is a certain shortage of tomato seeds, so these plans could be changed.
In Southern hemisphere countries, the harvest is ongoing with the forecast is Argentina raised to 680,000 tonnes with the harvest progressing well, as it is in Chile where the forecast remains 1.4 million tonnes. In Australia, the forecast remains 223,000 tonnes but final production may be lower following the rains. Meanwhile in South Africa, a 160,000 tonnes harvest is planned for the year 2024. The summer harvest has started and 12,000 tonnes have already been processed with no critical issues and on schedule.
With these preliminary forecasts, the current world production estimate for 2024 currently stands at 47 million metric tonnes, which is 6% more than the 44.4 million tonnes processed globally in 2023.
The increase in global volume is entirely due to the surprising 40% increase in volumes posted by China. It is important to note, that it is unusual for China to provide an accurate forecast at this stage, as they would normally only do so in late March or early April. WPTC expects to have a firmer forecast at that date.
WPTC has also enquired as to the current volumes consumed with domestic consumption which are known to have increased dramatically in recent years with the inclusion of tomato paste in the recipe(s) of several popular Chinese dishes and in particular for the many variations of the extremely popular “Tomato Hot Pot”
